ECONOMIC BANDWAGONING AND STRATEGIC HEDGING : KAZAKHSTAN'S RESPONSE TO CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Abstract

This article examines Kazakhstan’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since 2013. It argues that this response is best understood as a domain-specific combination of economic bandwagoning and strategic hedging. Kazakhstan has pursued Chinese markets, capital and connectivity in trade, industrial cooperation and transport while maintaining instruments of strategic insurance in institutional, infrastructural, security and regulatory domains. The study adopts a single-case design with a convergent mixed-methods logic, combining official indicators of trade, investment and rail transit with a thematic analysis of policy documents, institutional agreements and public controversies. The findings show that deep, state-supported engagement with China coexists with substantial trade and investment relations with other partners, participation in Russian-led institutions, investment in the TransCaspian route, and restrictions on foreign access to agricultural land. The article contributes to the literature on hedging by showing that bandwagoning and strategic insurance can be distributed unevenly across policy domains. It therefore qualifies the assumption that participation in the BRI necessarily entails comprehensive political alignment with China.