FROM IMPORTER TO EXPORTER: ANALYSING INDIA'S DEFENCE EXPORT TRAJECTORY (2014–2025) THROUGH THE LENS OF POLICY, INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY, AND GEOPOLITICAL REALIGNMENT

Abstract

India's transition from the world's largest arms importer to a credible defence exporter represents one of the most consequential industrial policy transformations in the country's post-independence history. Between FY2013–14 and FY2024–25, India's defence exports grew from ₹686 crore to a record ₹23,622 crore (approximately USD 2.76 billion), a 34-fold increase achieved through the convergence of three interacting forces: progressive policy liberalisation, indigenous industrial capacity building, and a favourable geopolitical realignment in the post-2022 global security environment. This paper analyses India's defence export trajectory across this eleven-year period, examining how the Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020, successive Positive Indigenisation Lists (PILs), FDI liberalisation, and the Make in India framework collectively reconfigured the structural incentives of India's defence-industrial base. The paper further examines the industrial capacity dimension, particularly the growing contribution of private sector firms (64.5% of exports in FY2024–25) alongside Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) and the geopolitical factors including the Russia-Ukraine conflict's disruption of global arms supply chains and India's deepening strategic partnerships with the United States, France, and Gulf states that have accelerated export demand. Drawing on secondary data from the Ministry of Defence (MoD), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF), and peer-reviewed literature, the analysis reveals that India's export trajectory, while impressive quantitatively, remains structurally constrained by deep-technology dependencies in propulsion, radar, and semiconductor domains. The paper concludes that sustaining the export trajectory towards the government's ₹50,000 crore target by FY2028–29 demands not just policy continuity but qualitative industrial upgrading.